What do you want ? "Analysis Paralysis" Or "Portfolio up 160%"

This is what most of financial bloggers are afflicted with when they go too deep into explaining their bullish or bearish bias. Wikipedia defines "Analysis Paralysis" as

Analysis paralysis is a phrase that describes a situation where the opportunity cost of decision analysis exceeds the benefits that could be gained by enacting some decision, or an informal or non-deterministic situation where the sheer quantity of analysis overwhelms the decision making process itself, thus preventing a decision. The phrase applies to any situation where analysis may be applied to help make a decision and may be a dysfunctional element of organizational behavior. This is often phrased as paralysis by analysis, in contrast to extinct by instinct.

I also has noticed that once they are done with their 1000 feet deep analysis, its hard for them to accept mistake and move on. That is one of the reason I am trying to keep things simple and not go too deep into rational for each trade.

Another problem I see with many analysts is that they cover both bullish and bearish scenario on various posts and even better posts multiple targets on separate posts. Then when one of their target is met they take credit as how correct their predictions are by showing link to their previous post and without acknowledging the fact that they were wrong so many other times. This is another reason I just let my trades speak as I might be wrong 60% of time but as far as I am making money on my portfolio(up 160% in last 3 months) I don't care.

The Big Picture: Unclear

I am in waiting mode that does not mean I won't trade but I am not taking either bull or bear side right now. Probably little bullish at this point. Picture is really not clear at this point..We need to get out of the range (1050-1080) we are in last few days.

Its written all over.

Is it bear market correction Terminated Or Correction before Bull bus continues?

Well no one can say for sure...but I think we are at least headed to 1030ish (with minor bounce back before that). Some people are making bold prediction about imminent crash and Yeah in the end one of those who are making bold prediction will be right but trading is not about making bold prediction rather its about making money. Right now every blogger and blog reader knows that the rally that started from March 10, 2009 has been halted. The decision is not out yet whether that rally was bear market correction or bull market rally.

I believe for short term winning bets are on short side, hence shorting the rallies will make sense. But you need to be nimble and trade what you see while keeping big picture in back of your mind.

Big picture :)

My view is short term we need to get a bounce before seeing 1030 ish on ES.

Updated trading rules as well as performance.