Out of shorts @1206 AH

$ES_F 100% Short 1203.5 , stop 1206

I would go short again at higher level

But won't be able to post real time...

100% out 1182.5

$ES_F 100% short 1191.5- I might not be able to post exit for this trade ASAP

Stop 1194

I am out of all shorts at 1186...

I apologize for not keeping this blog updated as indicated before...I have my priorities reset and not able to trade much lately..,

Quick update on position

I am still holding short positions. As you can see I am not trading as much as I like to due to other priorities(more important financially and professionally ) I have at this point. I think at this point upside is limited and any more upside should at least retest current levels soon.

$ES_F 50% short 1165.75 from stopped out lot

$ES_F Stop on 50% 1167

$ES_F add 50% short at 1167.25

$ES_F Add 50% short at 1162.25 Stop 1165

$ES_F out 50% @ 1156

Updates

Sorry for no updates past few days...I had some emergencies and asked some one to post my trade updates but she could not. Any how..quick updates....I personally stopped out my 50% short at 1141ish and another 50% @1156 and short again at little higher levels...I think finally we should see pull back...

$ES_F 50% add 1145

$ES_F stops in place at 1148 for 50%

no stop on 50% watching

The 50% that i added at 1139.

$ES_F Short 50% ES(June contract) 1139 Stop 1140

$ES_F Short 50% ES(June contract) 1137.75 Stop 1138.75

Try again.

$ES_F Short 50% ES(June contract) 1137.5 Stop 1138.75

50% covered at 1140.5

Stop on 50% is 1148.25 now

OCO to cover 50% at 1140 and stop 1147

Add 50% short @ 1147

Cover same 50% at 1133 if it goes there during Globex

Stop on 50% at 1143.5

50% reshort at 1135.5

50% out at 1132.75

Will Add later

50% more short 1140 Stop 1143

Thoughts and positions update

As predicted :) in post here we have run upto 1140. I think we need to go back to atleast 1120 ish before moving up further. Right now I am holding only core 50% short...may short rest in AM or Globex.

I have updated performance and chart here

$ES_F reshort 50% @34 Stop 35

50% short again 1131.75 stop 1133

50% out at 1127.75

$ES_F Add 50% short at 1131 Stop 1133

If bulls run this over this then I can see 1150 coming soon.

50% out at 1117.25

Edit: I still am holding other 50% from Globex.

Add 50% more short at 1121 Stop 1123

Added 50% short back at 1116.75

Covered 50% @ 1114.5

I will reshort this in Globex. Alerts placed around 1118-1120 area

50% short 1118.25 with stop 1119.5

Go to try...As far as we are below 1120

Order placed 50% short 1127 Stop 1128

50% more short 1122.25 Stop 1123.5

Morning Thoughts

We need to see market below 1107 for significant pullback. I am waiting for ISM numbers at 10 am. Will see price action to decide on next move. If we break 1126 we can run upto 1140 or more.

Market thoughts

I expect market to pull back before moving up further. As you might have noted in my past couple post I am still bullish on market but short term market is overbought and hence my bearish bias. Yesterday I was expecting market to get back at 1107.5 before moving upwards but I missed by few ticks.

I have updated my Performance sheet and Added new performance chart showing time line clearly. Happy trading and good luck.

50% short again @ 1113.75 Stop 1114.75

OCO order placed

New 50% OCO order placed Cover 1107.5 or stop 1114. Old 50% cover 1107.5

Stop on new lot 1114 now.

50% more short @ 1112.75 no stop for now

50% more short @1111 stop 1112 Cover @ 1107.5

50% short 1103.75

Any shorts need to be very cautious right now. Bull is not dead until we break 1084 decisively. Today was a low volume and hence either way no advantage. I am not leaning either way. 1104-1108 area is also becoming important. But if we move higher on Sunday I will close out positions.

If any of you guys are interested in making this site subscription site please use link on right hand side and send me an email. I like to justify my time here on site. Good luck and happy trading.

Out 1104

Need to reevaluate

100% short 1103.25. I do not see any advantage either way. Stop 1108

Stop updated to 1106 from now and goin in to Globex

50% short at 1102 stop 1103

100% short 1096.5 Stop 1098.5

Cover at 1092

All out at 1088.5 - small scalp will reenter on retest.

50% long at 1085.5

What do you want ? "Analysis Paralysis" Or "Portfolio up 160%"

This is what most of financial bloggers are afflicted with when they go too deep into explaining their bullish or bearish bias. Wikipedia defines "Analysis Paralysis" as

Analysis paralysis is a phrase that describes a situation where the opportunity cost of decision analysis exceeds the benefits that could be gained by enacting some decision, or an informal or non-deterministic situation where the sheer quantity of analysis overwhelms the decision making process itself, thus preventing a decision. The phrase applies to any situation where analysis may be applied to help make a decision and may be a dysfunctional element of organizational behavior. This is often phrased as paralysis by analysis, in contrast to extinct by instinct.

I also has noticed that once they are done with their 1000 feet deep analysis, its hard for them to accept mistake and move on. That is one of the reason I am trying to keep things simple and not go too deep into rational for each trade.

Another problem I see with many analysts is that they cover both bullish and bearish scenario on various posts and even better posts multiple targets on separate posts. Then when one of their target is met they take credit as how correct their predictions are by showing link to their previous post and without acknowledging the fact that they were wrong so many other times. This is another reason I just let my trades speak as I might be wrong 60% of time but as far as I am making money on my portfolio(up 160% in last 3 months) I don't care.

Got covered @ 1097

Just came back from busy schedule.

OCO on rest 1092 stop, cover at 1097

50% out at 1095.5 and stop on rest 1092

Long 100% @ 1091.75 stop 1089

Covered..waiting for re-entry +14 points

Celebration time...our site has reached adjusted 100+ ES points...

New cover order at 1096 stop 1104

No stop for now cover at 1098

50% OCO order placed

Out @ stop 1112 or cover 1102

Updated performance sheet and added chart

50% out @ 1106

100% short 1110

OCO Order placed

Stop 1097
Exit 1089

50% short 1098.5 Stop 1105

I could see this rally left with more legs but going to try this as it seems compelling trade.

Closing thoughts

The close is good for the bulls for sure...If we open above 1085 I am wearing my bullish hat again...Wait a minute I have been just trading bullish for most of my trades lately...:)

Got Covered 1068.5

+5.75 points..too early but was not monitoring this thing...will reeneter later

Stop on Trade is now 1060 and Cover at 1068

Need to step away

50% long at 62.75

No stop for now(will be decided based on price action)...Cover at 1068

The Big Picture: Unclear

I am in waiting mode that does not mean I won't trade but I am not taking either bull or bear side right now. Probably little bullish at this point. Picture is really not clear at this point..We need to get out of the range (1050-1080) we are in last few days.

Trading Performance Updated

Position size adjusted ES points made during last 2 and half months is almost 90 now...If you took 100% risk on your portfolio all the time following me then the ES points made are 158 but that's not realistic. And remember capital is limited while some sites would like you to believe otherwise.

Using iphone today for posting

So there might be some delay in posting stuff...Stop for rest 50% now entry price....Cover order at 1071

Out 50% at 1062.75

Another 50% at 1057.5

50% long in at 1061.5

Stop on 50% long now 64

50% added at 58.50

Stop 57.75 on this lot

50% back in at 1063.5

Cover if it hits 1077

Stop 1067.5 or cover at 1075

100% long at 1069.25

order set for rest 50% out 1073 stop 1063

will be out of new 50% at 1065

50% added back at 1063

Stop on rest 50% is 1058

added 50% back at 1064

will cover this at 1068

50% out at 1067

will reenter later

Long 100% 1057.25 in Globex

100% back in 1055.5

stop 54.75

100% back in 1057

Stop 1056

Stop on the whole lot 1057.75 now

100% back in at 1059

50% out at 1062.5

Will add later if there is retest. Stop on rest at 1058.

100% long 1060

As stated earlier and no stop for now

This could go upto 1068

I will be buyer above 1068 and seller below 1058 now.

Out at 1064

Will reenter later

I'm Back. Stop on 50% left adjusted to 1059

OCO orders placed

Cover 50% at 1061
Rest at 1064

Stop adjusted 55.75

100% back in at 1057

stop 1056

100% long 59

stop 58

100% out for now 1065.5

100% long 1058.25

Patience is virtue

In personal account covered the trade from 1071.5 at 1068 when it jumped to retest 1070 but could not post on blog real time as it slipped to 63-64 rather quickly...but to be truthful to live trades as I have done always in past I continued to hold it on Model portfolio. I was convinced it will hit 1068 during overnight session but it fell back from 1065..Hope any one who took trade with me were able to get out between 1068-70 on retest. I Will be going ahead and posting my exit trade(will not count in model portfolio as doing here) even if they move few points by the time I get to blog it next time. I believe that should at least help people out in deciding their own trade.

One thing is sure that you need patience and lots of patience to exit from losing trade as far as you can still think with your cool head.

Out 1063.5

Will be out if we see 1064

Stop 1058

I am long above 59 basically

Back in at 1059.5

100% back in at 1060.5 with stop 1059

Stop adjusted to 1060

100% back in at 1060 with stop 1059

This could go to 1068 once it crosses yesterday's lows

Out 100% at 1058

Will reneter again

What a day...

My expectations for this sell off was not until Friday..Watching action...Hope you guys are doing better than me.

100% Long 1071.5

OCO order placed

50% stop 1075 Cover 1080
50% stop 1074 Cover 1085

100% long at 1078.25

Conservative traders can take half off at 85ish

Stop now 82.5

100% Long 1083.5 Stop 1082.75

Short covered at 1090 in Globex

Order got filled...

Thoughts tonight

Will keep this simple..Sticking with trade for now. Market needs to get out of its range. Lets see if market obliges and moves lower tomorrow. For now I have stop 1099. Cover order set for 1090 in case we drop overnight. Beyond 1099 i will be watching 1104 and 1120.

Position

I will post my thoughts some time tonight...for now stop is adjusted to 1099 on 50% short position I am holding.

Last try 50% in at 1096 with stop 1097.5

50% short @ 1094 Stop 1095.5

Any one back in at 1096?

I am back...but seems like I missed the entry..

OCO order placed

Short 1099 stop 1101 Cover 1088-

If you are aggressive can try at 1096-97 but I need to get away...Busy schedule

Out rest of 50% 1091.75

50% out at 1095

100% short @ 1098.5

Possiblity of 1104 during Globex

I may take trade there depending on how things are...For bears to gain control this needs to go below 1097.

Cover order placed if do not get stopped out

50% at 1094
50% at 1088

100% Short back in @ 1098

Stop HOD + .25

One more try 100% short at 1096.5

Stop 1097.5

Order placed for 50% position

OCO long 1083 stop 1081 Cover 1094
OCO Short 1094 stop 1096 Cover 1086

Need to get away

Overnight short thought

If 1087-88 does not breach to the upside...It might be good short...I will post trade if I take one.

Hurray! We reached 100 ES points without adjusting Position size

Just noticed that...:) ...Slowly like turtle we need to get to 100 ES points with position size adjustments.

Missed the long entry again

Will be back in when given opportunity

Out at 1082.5

Will wait to reenter.

Missed the exit at 83.5 now back

Order placed to be out at 1084

Will be gone for few minutes. Stop 1076

50% long at 1075

Its written all over.

Is it bear market correction Terminated Or Correction before Bull bus continues?

Well no one can say for sure...but I think we are at least headed to 1030ish (with minor bounce back before that). Some people are making bold prediction about imminent crash and Yeah in the end one of those who are making bold prediction will be right but trading is not about making bold prediction rather its about making money. Right now every blogger and blog reader knows that the rally that started from March 10, 2009 has been halted. The decision is not out yet whether that rally was bear market correction or bull market rally.

I believe for short term winning bets are on short side, hence shorting the rallies will make sense. But you need to be nimble and trade what you see while keeping big picture in back of your mind.

xTreamTrend Club

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ztrends@gmail.com

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Subscription Request received as of February 10,2010: 7
Subscription site status: Waiting for more request to make it worthwhile my time.

Over all market view

Though a bounce is overdue long term 1030 is written in stone

And another 50% at 1075

Out 50% 73.5

Stop 1069.5 on whole position

Long 100% 1071.75

OCO order placed

50% Long 1070 with stop 1068 and cover 1078.

If we get there..stepping away again

OCO order- need to get away

Stop 1075
Cover 1084

50% back in 1076.5

Stop on whole position at 1077.75- adjusted

Its friday and do not want to carry this over week-end

One more try 100% in 1078

Stop 1076

That did not last long

Will wait...for 1076

Back in 100% long 1079.5

Stop 1078.75

Back 50% in 80.25

Long that is...Stop @79.75

Trade alert

OCO order on half out at 1083.5 Stop 1079.75
Edit: Out at 1083.5
OCO order placed half to be out at 1086 stop 1081
Edit: Stopped out.

100% in 1080.5 Stop 1080

100% in @ 1082 stop 1081

This could go upto 1097-98

Out rest of 50% to 1092.5

Stop on rest 1083

Out 50% @ 1089

Add 50% more at 1086

Big picture :)

My view is short term we need to get a bounce before seeing 1030 ish on ES.

Updated trading rules as well as performance.

50% long 1080.5

Stop on rest 1083.5 or cover at 1094

Need to be away..busy day meetings wise.

Out 50% @ 1087

100% in long at 1083.5

I am neutral at this point

Had too many meetings in morning and missed the whole short that i was expecting at 1003-4 ish..as well as entry into long at lower levels...watching.

Boght 50% 1086 stop 1084

Cover at 1092

OCO order placed

Short 50% @ 1104 with stop 1105 and cover at 1094. Need to step away

May take AH long trade with tight stop

When opportunity presents. I could see this drifting to 1100+...I will be posting the trade on blog when I do take the same.

And here is 94 I was looking for

Oh well...Was waiting for 1084 but we returned back from 1085ish

Missed long entry again

will wait...

OCO order on rest 50%

Need to step away...Stop 1088 or cover at 1094.

Out 50% at 1087

This is the level that needs to be overcome soon.

Stop on whole thing at 1082

In case there is a retest of lows. Will reenter at lows.

100% back in at 1083

Out of all longs @1083

Lets wait until FOMC

I will exit long before FOMC

Both drop and bounce would be extreme. Be cautious either way. Better to play it after FOMC.

Back in 100% 1082.75

Stop LOD

Need to get above 86-88 area soon

If not I will be scaling back 50% around this area. Keep in mind 86 was yesterday's low.

Added another 50% at 1085.25

Stop on whole postion 1084

50% long at 1086.5

Stop 1085

Waiting for new home sales for direction

Away for next half an hour

Logical place to take trade would be @ 93 with stop at 92 and below that @82 with stop @80

Pretty much in yesterday's range...

Between 93 to 98. Waiting...

Tempting to buy back at 1092

with stop just LOD - .25 but waiting

Stop raised to 1092 on whole position

Won't exit at 1096...watching market.

100% in 1087.75 with stop @1086

Will be out at 1096. Will not be able to post exits realtime...

50% long at 1084

Will add more later...I had order placed at 1080 cancelled that for now as I am in at 1084. Stop on this lot at 1081.5

Stopped out- No positions

Back and I see stopped out...I hope you guys got better price to get out at 1100

Stop raised to 1094 and valid AH

I need to step away so not taking chances.

Stop on 50% raised to 1092

I will be buyer at 1086-88 again. Need to step away. And Sell order if at all we get there set @ 1105.

1098 Needs to be taken out

Lets see..

Out 50% 1094.5

As we all know right now long is weak trade and only hope is PPT.

Ok changed stop to 1089.5

Just in case there is retest.

100% long 1090

Add 50% more long at 1093.5

Stop on this lot 1092.5 Adjusted

Stop 1090.5

Need to reevaulate if it keeps going down. And shall I say...I missed exit during Globex ...order was placed at 1104. Ok no bullshit and just trades...so whatever.

Levels for exit

1104 or 1109 ....or may put stop at 1099 once we see those levels.

Our portfolio Outperforms Sol's by 436%

One of the reader sent some information comparing Sol's performance with our performance and to my surprise we made 436% more ES points than Sol in last two months since posting live trades. To make sure we are comparing apples to apples ES point for both portfolio were applied position size(%of intended capital) being used for each trade. Check out the comparison yourself by clicking links above.

In nutshell we made 48+ ES points in 2 months while Sol made 11 ES points in 2 months.

Out of last 50% @ 1089

Don't want to hold everything until next week.

Have a good week-end guys....I think direction now is set to move lower...But we need to have a small bounce before this can move lower...But market has its own mood...lets see what happens with GDP,Fed next week...

And here we have my 1091 ...oh well.

Order to cover last 50% at 1091

This is to reduce risk on rest lot.

50% back in at 1187

Stop at 1186

Added 50% at 1090 its quick

Stop 1089 on this lot

50% back in 1096

100% long 1098

Stop 1097

This should be last trade today

I do expect a good bounce before we see further sell off. But I will respect what market decides.

Out 50% 1109.75

Stop raised to 1108 on rest.

100% back in 1107.5 Long

Lets see if they can push it higher this time...Stop 1107

100% long 1108.75 stop 1108

Yesterday's low is acting as resistence

1111ish area that is.

Stop on rest 50% adjusted to 1108

They like to run on stops. Exit around 1115

Out 50% 1111.5

Stop raised on rest at 1109...

Back in 100% 1105.5 stop 1105

I got little early but you can get in at 1106.

No positions

Waiting...for long entry.

Stopped out 1107 back in at 1107

Conviction we go to 1111 atleast. Stop now 1106.75...lets hope that does not hit.

Back 100% in 1107.5 stop 1107 again

Lets hope that holds this time.

Out 50% 1106.5

Out 50% 1102.75

So rest is risk free..we are waiting for PPT. :)

100% long 1101.25 stop 1099

Stop 1102 on whole postion

Another 50% 1102.5

Long 50% 1103.5

Need to get above 1111 for bulls

Out 50% at 1110.5

To reduce risk...,moving too fast...rest cover order 1115 and stop on rest 1107

100% long 1106

Stop 1104.5 and Cover at 1112

No positions...

This Stop valid after hours as well

Stop entry price again @1112.5

Back 100% in at 1112.5

crazy market

Stop raised to 1113.5

I expect a bounce pretty soon...

Back 100% in 1113.5

Stop adjusted 1112.5

Back 100% in 1114 Stop 1113

Lets get this higher...

Back long 100% at 1116 Stop 1115

Stop 1115.5 on whole position.

Watching 1114-1116...

We need to move above this very soon...

Removed stop

This is going up...

Back 100% in at 1116 Stop 1115

Not sure if we will get retest...

Finally bears have their Joy

I believe we have seen top but again i don't like to call tops and just trade...My view short term Bullish and intermediate bearish.

Out at 1114.5 will reenter again on retest

Back 100% in 1116.5

Should be short trade.

Long 50% one more try 1117.25

Stop 1116

I won't count in editgrid my short trade at 1133

and out at 1124...here...as it was too fast.

50% long at 1120 Stop 1118.5 on this

If we hit stop I will be entering long again later.

1133 needs to taken down for short trade

I will be careful shorting this bounce yet

Out @ 1132 for now

want to see market action

50% long back in at 1127

Long 50% at 1132 stop 1129

Out rest at 1133.5

will reenter later

Out 50% at 1141

Added 50% short at 1144...

Stop again 1145.5

Short Another lot 50% at 1141.5

Stop on this lot HOD + .25

50% short at 1137.5

I am going to re-assess this if we go beyond 1142.

test

test disqus

Out 1132.5

Now stop at 1128.5

Not liking action..and its end of the day friday.

50% back in at 1128.5

Stop 1129.75

if this gives way, Will enter long later with better entry

Long 50% at 1133.5

Out @1135.5- will reenter again

Back in 50% @1142.5

Market too fast...Target around 1136-38

Bias still short but out for now at 1138.5

Will reenter trade again soon.

Still in the trade

Monitoring market so no hard stop or exit price for now.

Thoughts for tonight.

I will have stop changed to entry price on this trade once we see 1141. No stop on upside for until morning.

Short 50% @1143.5

Short 50% 1140.5 stop 1142

This could easily go upto 1140

Out at 1136.25

50% Long added at 1130.75 stop LOD

Model portfolio Updated

For trades follow me on twitter or check right side of the blog

Out of 50% at 1143

My order triggered this AM..

ES 1163 is possiblity

As indicated in comments section Friday's close was not favorable as it closed right at important level and now we have seen break of 1140-42 with AUD,EUR and GBP pushing higher...I will look into exiting this position at 1143 or 1147.5 (Edit: Some one just pointed this mistake out its 1148.5...I only cover at HOD+ few ticks) orders are placed. Will enter position again depending on Open on Monday.

rentered 50% @ 1136.5 no stop

Add 50% again 1134.75 stop 1137

Add 50% again 1135.5 stop 1137

Last attempt today...or we see 1140...Not sure....

Add 50% again @ 1134

Stop little above HOD

Out 50% @ 1128.25

1128 is good support...will reshort later

Added 50% again @ 1132

Stop just above HOD

Covered 50% @1129 will reshort later

Short 50% again @ 1134.5

Added back 50% @ 1134

Stop near HOD @ 1134.75

Reshorted 50% @ 1131 stop 1134

Added 50% @1127 the stopped out lot

Stop HOD